Jobs are plunging in western Sydney; Small business jobs fall the most
Jobs and weekly wages; Used vehicle prices
What happened? The Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that domestic salaried jobs fell 0.7% in the fortnight through August 14, 2021 with total wages down 1.0%. Salaried jobs fell in Greater Sydney (-1.5%), followed by Greater Brisbane (-1.1%) and Greater Melbourne (-1.0%). But wages increased in Greater Adelaide (+ 1.4%). Since June 26, 2021, salaried jobs have fallen by 13.7% in Sydney – Inner South West, followed by Sydney South-West (-13.5%) and Parramatta (-11.5%).
Implications: Covid-19 lockdowns in several capitals have led to increased scrutiny of data on high-frequency weekly payroll jobs. Already, indicators of labor demand, such as the SEEK job posting series, have weakened in NSW, Victoria and ACT. But Covid-19 disaster payments may limit the overall damage to the labor market, alongside strong intentions to hire jobs in ‘Covid-free’ regions. However, hours worked have fallen sharply as unemployment and underemployment rates are set to rise.
Other data: Prices for used vehicles rose 17.7% in August, compared to 27.2% in July. Used car prices are up 18.5% from a year ago, while truck prices are up 13.1%.
Data on payrolls and wages help the government to make decisions on measures to support households and businesses. Used vehicle price data provides a supply and demand guide for companies in the automotive and components industry.
What does it mean?
• Covid-19 lockdowns in major Australian capitals have led to increased scrutiny of weekly high-frequency employment data from the Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and the Australian Taxation Office (ATO). Of course, the epicenter of the recent Delta variant outbreak – Greater Sydney – has been hit hardest by job losses since the city’s nearly 12-week lockdown began. Between June 26 and August 14, 2021, salaried jobs in Greater Sydney plunged 10.1% to be 7.8% below levels on March 14, 2020, when Australia recorded its 100th confirmed case of Covid-19.
• With western Sydney under more severe government restrictions than the rest of the city, including nighttime curfews, salaried employment has fallen the most in these SA4 regions. Between June 26 and August 14, 2021, salaried jobs fell 13.7% in Sydney – Inner South West, followed by Sydney South-West (-13.5%), Parramatta (-11.5 percent) and Sydney – Inner West (-10.1 percent) percent). All of the SA4 regions of Greater Sydney experienced significant job losses, including the neighboring Central Coast (-8.5%) and Illawarra (-8.2%) regions.
• During the fortnight until August 14, 2021, salaried jobs fell the most in Greater Sydney (-1.5%), followed by Greater Brisbane (-1.1%) and Greater Melbourne (-1 , 0%). But wages increased in Greater Adelaide (+ 1.4%). Regionally, paid employment fell 0.9% in Queensland, followed by New South Wales and Tasmania (both -0.6%).
• Of course, salaried jobs fell the most during the fortnight until August 14, 2021 in accommodation and food services (-4.4%) and arts and recreation services (-3, 6%).
• And small businesses with fewer than 20 employees (-3.7%) laid off or laid off the most workers in the fortnight to August 14, 2021. Small businesses reduced their payrolls by 4.1 % over the past year, while the largest companies with 200 or more employees have actually increased the number of salaried jobs by 2.8%, highlighting the uneven impact of the pandemic on Australian businesses.
• The damage to the labor market is widespread. By gender, salaried jobs for women and men both fell 0.7% in the fortnight to August 14, 2021. And salaried jobs held by those aged 15 to 19 fell 3.0%. , once again hardest hit by job losses in the teen-centric hospitality and retail sectors.
• Forward-looking indicators of labor demand, such as the SEEK measure of job vacancies, also weakened in August. The online recruiting company today reported that job postings were down 5.3%, as applications per position fell 1.3% in the month.
• According to SEEK, vacancies fell the most in ACT (-11.9%), followed by New South Wales (-10.7%), Victoria (-6.3%) and Queensland (-5.0%) due to lockdowns, government restrictions and a slowdown in economic activity. Once again, the “Covid-19-free” economies of Tasmania (+ 2.8%), the Northern Territory (+ 2.7%), South Australia (+ 2.4%) and Western Australia (+ 0.3%) all saw an increase in recruiting activity.
• In August, the hotel and tourism sectors (-19.0%), shops and services (-7.3%) and retail and consumer products (-8.9% ) recorded the largest declines in job vacancies.
• Commonwealth Bank (CBA) economists expect official August labor data to show around 300,000 lob losses, with unemployment falling from 4.6% to 5.2 % and the participation rate rising from 66.0% to 64.9%. Hours worked will also drop sharply with an increase in underemployment.
What do you want to know?
Weekly pay – Fortnight ended August 14, 2021
• The Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that domestic payroll jobs fell 0.7 percent in the fortnight to August 14, 2021, but were still up 1.6 percent per year. compared to a year ago.
• Total wages fell 1.0 percent in the fortnight to August 14, up 4.9 percent from a year ago.
• By gender, salaried jobs for women and men both fell 0.7 percent in the fortnight of August 14. Salaried jobs held by people aged 15 to 19 fell 3.0 percent.
• During the fortnight to August 14, the largest job losses were recorded in New South Wales (-1.2%), followed by Queensland (-1.0%), ACT (-0.7%), Victoria (-0.6%). and Tasmania (-0.5 percent). But wages remained stable in Western Australia and higher in South Australia (+ 1.5%) and the Northern Territory (+ 0.2%).
• By industry, salaried jobs fell the most during the fortnight to August 14 in accommodation and food services (-4.4%) and arts and recreation services (-3.6%) .
• By job size, salaried jobs fell the most during the fortnight until August 14 for companies with less than 20 employees (-3.7%), followed by companies with 20 to 199 employees (- 0.8%). But companies with 200 or more employees increased the number of salaried jobs by 1.0%.
Datium Insights-Moody’s Analytics Used Vehicle Price Index – August
• Moody’s Analytics said: “The price appreciation of Australian used vehicles slowed further in August. The Datium Insights-Moody’s Analytics used vehicle price index rose 17.7% year-over-year in August, down from 27.2% the month before. Car prices rose 18.5 percent while truck prices rose 13.1 percent.
• Vehicle retention value, measured as Manufacturer’s Suggested Retail Price / Price, increased 15.2% from the previous year, with the automotive component increasing by 17.2% and the truck component. by 12.9%.
Posted by Ryan Felsman, Senior Economist, CommSec