Keeping promises on renewables, energy efficiency, and methane reduction could significantly mitigate global heating. Sticking to these three key climate commitments would avoid nearly 1C of global warming and offer hope for preventing climate breakdown, according to analysis presented at the Cop30 climate summit. Governments have already pledged to triple renewable energy generation by 2030, double global energy efficiency by then, and make substantial methane emission cuts. If these promises are fulfilled, it would be a game-changer, reducing projected temperature rises by 0.9C this century, according to the Climate Action Tracker coalition. Achieving these measures, especially among G20 countries, would reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 18 billion tonnes by 2035, cutting the rate of global heating by a third in the next decade and halving it by 2040. Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, emphasizes that this could slow warming in the next decade and lower global warming this century from 2.6C to about 1.7C. This aligns closely with the 2015 Paris climate agreement's goal of limiting global heating to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. However, stopping deforestation is another crucial pledge that has yet to be fulfilled, which is essential to preserve the world's carbon sinks. Hare notes that these targets have been negotiated and now need to be implemented. Pledges to triple renewables and double energy efficiency were made at Cop28 in Dubai in 2023, with global investment in renewables rising to over $2 trillion last year, more than twice the investment in fossil fuels. China's renewable energy sector has made significant progress, and India reached its goals five years early through substantial investment in solar and wind energy. Methane reduction, however, remains a challenge. Over 160 governments are nominally signed up to the global methane pledge, aiming to cut emissions by 30% by 2030 compared to 2020 levels. Yet, methane emissions continue to rise, and many countries have been underreporting their output. Even capturing methane from oil and gas operations or sealing abandoned coalmines and oil wells seems unlikely, with Russia, China, and the US as major contributors. Hare urges governments to start implementing these promises immediately, emphasizing the political challenge of resisting fossil fuel industry pressure and securing financial support for vulnerable countries. At Cop30, governments are expected to address the gap between their current emissions-cutting plans and the 1.5C target, with a new draft text addressing these issues and the transition away from fossil fuels, which was also promised at Cop28. Some countries hope to begin drafting a roadmap for fossil fuel phase-out, but they may face opposition from petrostates and their allies.
